Working Papers

I have tried to write up the ideas about the criminological puzzle in book form. This could be thought of as “a general model of crime.” Any comments are welcome. send to arnoldtk@mail.uc.edu.

This paper provides an examination of how fluctuation in offender risk levels changes over time. It is interesting to note that the level of fluctuation mirrors the age crime curve. The level of fluctuation is related to the slope of the change trajectory. Offenders with high fluctuation in risk levels tend to be increasing in risk over time.

This paper represents several attempts to understand how offender recidivism risk changes over time. I first examined the change score distributions. I then tried to examine the levels of clinically significant change. Finally, I tried individual growth curve modeling. These analyses suggest that there is a considerable amount of inter-individual variation in criminal propensity over time. This variation is offset by a substantial amount of stability.

This is my Master’s dissertation. I wanted to see if you could measure change with the Level of Service Inventory-Revised by observing improvements in prediction accuracy. I found some disconcerting results. The improvements in prediction accuracy go away after the second assessment